{"id":2538,"date":"2025-02-06T19:01:31","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T16:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/?p=2538"},"modified":"2025-02-07T22:22:27","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T19:22:27","slug":"yanlislarimizdan-ders-cikarma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/?p=2538","title":{"rendered":"Yanl\u0131\u015flar\u0131m\u0131zdan Ders \u00c7\u0131karma"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00d6nceliklerimizi Belirlerken En S\u0131k Tekrarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Hatalar<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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2.D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 D\u00f6nemi’nde, donanma seferden geri d\u00f6nen u\u00e7aklar\u0131n nereden vurulduklar\u0131n\u0131n istatisti\u011fini \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f ve ortaya bu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. \u0130lk ba\u015fta bu kur\u015fun delikleri olan yani u\u00e7aklar\u0131n en \u00e7ok hasar alan b\u00f6lgelerini z\u0131rhlamay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fler.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Macar do\u011fumlu \u0130statik\u00e7i A.Wald bu fikre kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. U\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n burun b\u00f6lgesi, motorlar\u0131 ve orta g\u00f6vdesi yani kur\u015fun izi olmayan yerlerin z\u0131rhlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015f.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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A.Wald’\u0131n farkedip di\u011ferlerinin farkedemedi\u011fi \u015fey; bu u\u00e7aklar o b\u00f6lgelerden hasar ald\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015f, hasar almad\u0131klar\u0131 yerlerden vurulmad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in eve geri d\u00f6nebilmeyi ba\u015farabilmi\u015f. Kur\u015fun izi olmayan yerlerden vurulursa u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n geri d\u00f6nme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015f.<\/div>\n
\u0130\u015fte bu fenomene “survivorship bias” deniyor. Hayatta kalanlara \u00e7ok odaklan\u0131p, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olanlar\u0131n neden ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etme mant\u0131k hatas\u0131.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\u00c7evremize bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da hep ayn\u0131 \u015feyleri g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor muyuz?<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00d6nceliklerimizi Belirlerken En S\u0131k Tekrarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Hatalar 2.D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 D\u00f6nemi’nde, donanma seferden geri d\u00f6nen u\u00e7aklar\u0131n nereden vurulduklar\u0131n\u0131n istatisti\u011fini \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f ve ortaya bu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. \u0130lk ba\u015fta bu kur\u015fun delikleri olan yani u\u00e7aklar\u0131n en \u00e7ok hasar alan b\u00f6lgelerini z\u0131rhlamay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fler. Macar do\u011fumlu \u0130statik\u00e7i A.Wald bu fikre kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. U\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n burun b\u00f6lgesi, motorlar\u0131 ve orta g\u00f6vdesi yani kur\u015fun izi olmayan yerlerin z\u0131rhlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015f. A.Wald’\u0131n farkedip di\u011ferlerinin farkedemedi\u011fi \u015fey; bu u\u00e7aklar o b\u00f6lgelerden hasar ald\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015f, hasar almad\u0131klar\u0131 yerlerden vurulmad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in eve geri d\u00f6nebilmeyi ba\u015farabilmi\u015f. Kur\u015fun izi olmayan yerlerden vurulursa u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n geri d\u00f6nme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015f. \u0130\u015fte bu fenomene “survivorship bias” deniyor. Hayatta kalanlara \u00e7ok odaklan\u0131p, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olanlar\u0131n neden ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etme mant\u0131k hatas\u0131. \u00c7evremize bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da hep ayn\u0131 \u015feyleri g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor muyuz?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[678],"tags":[1512,1493,1494,1491,1513,1490,1508,1503,1510,1502,1496,1511,1497,1500,1492,1506,1504],"class_list":["post-2538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-kd","tag-a-wald","tag-digikoc","tag-digital-koc","tag-egitim","tag-istatistik","tag-kaizen-felsefesi","tag-kariyer","tag-lgs","tag-meb","tag-mitat-ozder","tag-ogretmen","tag-osym","tag-rehberlik","tag-rutinlerimiz","tag-surekli-ogrenme","tag-tyt","tag-yks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2538"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2538\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2540,"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2538\/revisions\/2540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mitatozder.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}